No Surprise: the Spotlight Will Be On Obama in Trinidad and Tobago

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By Peter Hakim, President of the Inter-American Dialogue

When the Western Hemisphere’s 34 democratically elected leaders gather in Port of Spain on April 17 for the fifth Summit of the Americas, many of them will vividly recall the tense proceeding and unhappy outcome of the previous Summit in Mar del Plata some three and one-half years ago. The discord stemmed from the sharp, and in some cases acrimonious, divisions among the governments on an array of issues and policy choices—and was compounded by the widespread Latin American distaste for President Bush and the absence of moderating leadership from the Argentine host.
The most troublesome issue confronted at the earlier Summit—whether to resume hemispheric free trade negotiations—is no longer on the inter-American agenda. But the distrust and division among the region’s governments have persisted, and continue to challenge the operations of the OAS and other inter-American institutions. They may end up buffeting this year’s summit in Trinidad as well.
Two things will make a difference in Port of Spain, however. First, Barack Obama, not George Bush, is now president of the US. Following the invasion of Iraq, Bush became a target of growing Latin American hostility; he represented what was widely perceived as Washington’s unilateralism, militarism, and disregard for international rules and institutions—and its indifference to Latin America. In contrast, Obama’s election was enthusiastically welcomed in the region, and viewed as a hopeful sign of the vitality US democracy.
Second, every country of the hemisphere is now coping with the consequences of the global financial crisis. With shrinking exports, falling commodity prices, declining remittances, and diminished credit and investment, every Latin American and Caribbean country faces sluggish growth, rising unemployment, and deepening poverty. Although this “made in the USA” crisis is a new source of resentment toward Washington, Latin America’s governments know full well that US economic policy in the coming period will crucially affect their capacity to recover from the crisis and mitigate its damage. It is not only that fixing the US economy will moderate and shorten Latin America’s ordeal. Washington can also help the region’s countries by resisting protectionist measures to curb imports or overseas investment; using its influence to encourage expanded support and flexibility for the multilateral financial institutions; and coordinating policy approaches with the region’s governments.
In short, the US today has a president that is almost universally liked and admired, while the economic crisis makes cooperation with the US all the more important for Latin America. These changes should contribute to a more productive Summit this year than in 2005 in Mar del Plata.
At least three of the hemisphere’s leaders—Brazil’s Lula da Silva, Mexico’s Felipe Calderon, and Canada’s Stephen Harper—will have met privately with Obama prior to the Summit, and he may also have had the opportunity to meet with Argentina’s Christina Fernandez at the April G-20 session on the financial crisis in London. They and the other presidents and prime ministers in Trinidad look forward to the opportunity to tell the new US president how they view political and economic developments in the region and globally, what they like and dislike about US policies, and what they now want from the US.
What President Obama has to say will be more important to the assembled leaders, however. No one anticipates that the US president, after only three months in office, will be ready to announce detailed policy proposals for US-Latin American relations. He will, however, be expected to talk about his priorities and discuss his thinking about major inter-American challenges. The regional leaders will be concerned about style as well as substance. They will want to see a different tone and texture in the diplomacy of the new administration—and will be looking for signals of a more inclusive and cooperative approach to regional affairs and a greater respect for Latin American views.
The topic of greatest concern will be the global economic crisis—and whether and how US policy responses will take Latin America’s needs into account. President Obama will be questioned about the ‘buy American’ provisions of the recently approved stimulus package and about US support for expanded multilateral funding for emerging market economies. On this topic, more than any other, Latin American and Caribbean heads of state will expect Obama to be well prepared (since he has spent so much of his time on the problems and will have participated in the G-20 meeting two weeks earlier). But they will also be eager to hear about other issues. Cuba, organized crime, immigration, and trade are among the most significant.
Nearly every government in the hemisphere wants to know whether the Obama administration will find a way to end the US’s anachronistic policy of isolating and sanctioning Cuba. This is an issue of huge symbolic importance; justified or not, it will be regarded as a main test of the US’s commitment to change in hemispheric affairs.
With the pandemic of criminal violence spreading across Latin America and the Caribbean, governments will also want to know whether the US plans to expand its support for countries battling organized crime and drug trafficking—and whether President Obama is prepared review Washington’s decades-long anti-drug strategy that has yielded such scant results.
US immigration policies are a first order concern for more than a dozen countries. Latin American leaders are aware of the bitter US debates over immigration and know that reform may take some time—but they are hoping to hear that the Obama administration will suspend construction of the wall or fence on the US-Mexican border, and stop the raids and arrests targeting illegal immigrants.
Trade initiatives are not a priority for either the US or Latin America. But many governments in the region want to hear that the new administration will seek congressional ratification of the trade agreements that the US negotiated with Colombia and Panama to reassure themselves that the US is a reliable commercial partner.
The leaders of the dozen English-speaking Caribbean nations, who have long felt their interests ignored and belittled by the US, will expect some special consideration given that this is the first hemispheric Summit held in their territory.
How the Obama administrations responds to the challenge posed by Venezuela and its several allies is another regional issue that will be of concern to the assembled leaders—as will be US policies toward the OAS, democracy promotion, and Haiti. And there will also be considerable interest in US global policies regarding the Israeli-Palestine conflict, withdrawal from Iraq, the closing of Guantanamo, the war in Afghanistan, and US relations with such countries as Iran, China, and Russia. They are hoping to learn that the US no longer divides the world into friends and adversaries—and is now prepared to pursue more multilateral and conciliatory approaches in the hemisphere and beyond.
The official Summit agenda deals with several other critical issues—environmental sustainability, energy security, and human prosperity—all of which have been the subject of intense debate and discussion among the governments. Agreement on how to deal with these themes are expected to be reached before the presidents and prime ministers meet in Trinidad, and could set the stage for greater regional cooperation on different dimensions of the issues. But they are not likely to be the central focus of attention of the Summit.
For most of the assembled governments, the results and impressions that emerge from informal exchanges among the US, Latin American, Caribbean, and Canadian leaders will be more important than the formal proceedings or the meeting’s final declaration in determining the value of the Summit. The spotlight will clearly be on Obama. The other governments will fundamentally be assessing whether his administration is likely to adjust its policies to (1) take account the profound changes that have taken place in Latin America and the Caribbean and (2) acknowledge the diminished ability of the US to exert authority and determine outcomes in the region. One measure of success in Trinidad will be whether in the months to come the hemisphere’s governments decide to schedule another Summit.